Hanging in the balance

by Kristin Wadge 5/7/2010 10:20:00 AM
So, the big day has been and gone and here we are in limbo.  Cleggmania and Bigot-gate seemed but a distant memory as news the world over focused on Polling Day.
 
At Metrica we've been watching how the social media world has shaped itself around the Election campaigns.  We saw as CGM shadowed mainstream media events, most notably the televised debates.  On the big day itself, the UK nationals dedicated their front pages to the election, while social media buzz calmed down.  And over on Fishburn Hedges site, the automated sentiment analysis we put together gave a spookily accurate insight into the possible outcome (we really should have had the pluck to call the election!).
 
Aside from being a bit of fun, our Mood-o-Meter was born from a conversation about the need to see what effect social media has on people's thoughts, decisions and actions.  As with all PR, what really matters is not what's said but what's done.  What the eventual outcome is.  What better time to test the myriad theories than with the first UK general election since Obama's triumph set the CGM world alight.
 
The Televised debates had the biggest impact on online conversations.  The 15th April saw the Lib Dems come out from the shadows and dominate conversation -- the Clegg-effect was immediate.  Instant polling after the first debate declared Nick Clegg the winner, and social media agreed (see below).  Check out the unexpected impact of the debate as shown in the YouGov opinion polls. Now THAT's that I call an outcome.
 
Fig1: total online buzz for the three leaders over time
 
 
Both Clegg and Cameron did well in the second debate, but Nick again secured the most interest throughout the social media world.  Finally, David Cameron emerged victorious from the third debate on the 29th and the Conservatives made a 5% gain over the Labour party.  The event, however, was completely overshadowed by Brown's Bigot-gate in terms of buzz and the social media world appeared to lose interest.
 
Fig2: total online buzz for the three parties over time

The clearest conclusion to date is that social media behaviour in the run up to the election has certainly supported the model of media meshing or integrated media consumption.  What's not clear is what effect social media had on people's decision making.  Nick Clegg wooed undecided Britian in the first televised debate but interest waned over time.  And overall, despite closing the gap in buzz, the Lib dems continued to trail behind the other main parties.  A result that has been echoed in Polling stations around the country yesterday.  What we hope to unravel over coming weeks is whether undecided voters looked to social peers to guide them.  Or was it the striking headlines and front pages in the mainstream media that ultimately swayed decisions?  Before we get to work on the data, what do you guys think?  Did social media have an impact on who ended up in Number 10?
 

Can automated social media measurement be trusted?

by Richard Bagnall 4/26/2010 5:09:00 PM

Working on large international PR measurement programmes for firms head-quartered in the US provides me with many benefits, not least the opportunity to network with some of America's smartest operators in the field of public relations measurement, social media and market research. One of the these is Jason Falls who writes an excellent blog 'Social Media Explorer.'

Today Jason has posted on an issue close to my heart - whether to rely on automated sentiment analysis when undertaking social media evaluation. The issue has arisen due to the overwhelming volume of content that the social web generates. Companies know that it contains much valuable information, but PR analysis providers are unable to scale up to measure the content with human coders in the same way that they always have done with traditional media.  Either they don't have access to enough people, or if they do, the costs incurred for the clients would be simply prohibitive.

As a result many firms attempting to measure content in social media have developed automated systems to assess the tone of the myriad of conversations and in some cases to rank posts, blogs, tweets etc for their levels of influence and engagement. A lot of these companies are software specialists who are branching out into new fields.  Social media content has brought their world colliding with that of PR and evaluation. Many have built flashy dashboards that appear to offer great functionality and amazing insights from all of this content.  

The problem is that the data that they are serving up is often plain wrong. Jason's post describes the issue in great detail so I would urge you to take a look at it.

At Metrica we have been helping clients to understand the threats and the opportunities that social media offers since 2006 (and analysing the traditional media since the early days in 1993!) Our approach to social media measurement has always been to use an element of automation, but to undertake large scale human checking on the data before providing it to our clients. The automation provides an element of filtering if you like, the humans provide the real business insights and the intelligence.  Metrica wouldn't base any business decisions on data that stands a significant risk of being flawed.  So why should our clients?  

Regular readers will know that along with Durrants and Gorkana, we are in the process of integrating our businesses to provide the PR industry with the very best media intelligence service available. As we do this, you can rest assured that human quality control, assessment and consultancy will remain at the heart of our offering. After all, as one client in the United States commented to me: "garbage in... garbage out."  Neither Jason nor I could have summarised the risks of relying on automated social media measurement better.

Clegg rocks the social media world in the first televised election debate

by Kristin Wadge 4/16/2010 6:34:00 PM
Any excuse for a party, eh?  Last night's televised election debate spawned a veritable glut of election parties around the country. I had the privilege of spending my evening in the company of the lovely folks over at MandateKrishnan Guru-Murthy (@krishgm) started the evening off with some insider insight.  He briefed us to look for signs of nervousness including Clegg's swallowing, Cameron's face-wiping and Brown's 'charming' / alarming smile. It was also clear that, with an equal amount of time being granted to Clegg, a predefined advantage would most likely play out. After letting the two leading parties squabble over a the scraps of a question, the Lib Dem leader would be able to swoop in and save the day with some cool, calm and collected comments.
 
Mandate gave us all voting remotes to give our thoughts on various topics such as whether the leaders would wear ties to reflect thier party colours. Pink? Really?Everyone loves a bit of interactivity and, of course, they were able to get some good PR from it.  Cue a hit in PR Week: "in a poll of 200 comms experts taken at an event held by Mandate in Westminster, 45 per cent of comms experts said they thought Brown had received the best media training, while 76 per cent believed Cameron made the biggest blunder." Nice.
 
So we're broadly agreed that Clegg won the war of the words during the live broadcast. But how did he do in the social media realm?  Alongside Fishburn Hedges Metrica has adapted its social media tool to create a completely automated Mood-o-Meter to track the social media buzz around the three parties in the run up to the election. 
 
We've sliced the data to look at all positive and neutral mentions of the leaders in social media content. When we first started tracking data, the three lines were as you would typically expect them to be - Labour and the Tories dancing around the top of the charts, with the Lib Dems skimming along the bottom. After the massive spike caused by the annoucnement of the election date, and in the run up to the live debate, things really started to change.
 
Fig. 1: positive and neutral mentions of party leaders in social media over time 
 
 
 
Fig. 2: share of positive and neutral mentions of party leaders in social media w/c 12th April 2010 
 
 
Fig 3: share of positive and neutral mentions of party leaders in social media w/c 14th March 2010 

 

If we compare Clegg and the Lib Dems' share of social media in the week just gone to the same week a month ago, the effect is immediately obvious. What a difference a month makes. But, how much of this is attributable to him, and how much to his mentor, Vince Cable and hisown social media bandwagon going on at "In Vince Cable we Trust"?

Can social media call the election result?

by Tim 4/12/2010 4:08:00 PM

There is an ongoing debate about the potential influence of social media on the UK’s2010 general election. Much has been made of Barack Obama’s use of social media to build a winning coalition of volunteers and supporters in 2008. Will social media transform the UK’s election in the same way? We have set up our own Mood-o-Meter in partnership with Fishburn Hedges to compare comment about the main political parties and their leaders in the UK in the run up to the May 6 general election.

This shows positive posts within social media for each ofthe main political parties by day in contrast to mainstream media. We also show the share of positive posts and articles made that mention each of the three party leaders. While both Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck in both social and mainstream media, positive comment about Gordon Brown versus David Cameron shows a significant contrast. Brown is more popular in social media, while Cameron tends to dominate the mainstream media.

 

 

Will social media influence the result? Nobody knows yet. Will social media influence how the campaign is run? Definitely. You can see the official campaigns dipping their toes in the water, with Labour’s crowd sourcing political poster competition or the Conservatives’ Cash Gordon site.

Social media creates more opportunities for third parties to influence the debate and creates daily pitfalls for candidates. There have already been social media casualties. In the past a misguided comment needed to be picked up by a journalist, now candidates are making gaffes by themselves and publishing them to the (social media) world. I expect hacks and the parties’ own attack machines are scouring social networks for any inappropriate comments made by candidates.

What can we learn from social media that we didn’t know in previous elections? Comparing the views made public by ordinary people creates access to a huge panel of voters’ views. In the past opinion polling was based on a small number of voters being contacted by the polling companies. Based ona typical poll of 1000 people, if 20% claim to be voting Liberal Democrat that means that just 200 people in the country have made that statement. Social media has opened up the field, meaning the views of a cast of 1000s are instantly available.

Behind the scenes our powerful tool myMetrica is slicing the data in a number of other ways and will be providing us with the basis for much analysis as the election campaign draws on. Check Measurement Matters regularly for more updates on the latest trends and results, comparing election reaction on social and mainstream media.

 

Apple attempts to control access to new media

by Richard Bagnall 4/12/2010 1:34:00 PM

Ask most people what they think of Apple Inc and the answers will be fairly consistent.  "Great products", "gorgeous design", "superb functionality", "reliable", "easy to use", "the good guys - not the evil empire" might all roll of the tongue.

Apple's turnaround from near oblivion in the mid 1990s to one of today's hottest brands is well documented. The iMac, iPod, iPhone, and now the iPad have all been welcomed rapturously by an adoring public and it seems that the company can do no wrong. The iPhone and iPad are the products of today's world - both portable devices enabling their users to immerse themselves and engage in a rich world of new mobile media.  Proving the point, the iPad's launch sales in the first few days this week have already exceeded 450,000 units and broken analysts expectations.

Apple's reputation amongst their customers has remained consistently high. But with the world at its feet, Apple has started to play a high-stake game that could put this hard won reputation at risk.

Apple has decided that as the world embraces its products as their media platform of choice, they want to control all access to the platform. Not content with recent hostile comments from Steve Jobs at long time ally Adobe calling the company 'lazy' and ridiculing Google's corporate philosophy, they now appear to have banished all flash and third party developers from the iPhone and in all likelihood the iPad too.  This latest move was done in an underhand manner with a change to the small print in the licensing terms and has prompted Lee Brimelow, Adobe's platform evangelist, in a well written post to exclaim "Apple - go screw yourself!

The initial reaction from on-line and social media has tended to back Adobe and their stance.  There are fears that Apple is getting too big for its boots and becoming as arrogant as Microsoft was in its heyday.  It reminds me of when Metrica worked with Netscape evaluating their international media coverage from the birth of the first mainstream browser in the mid 1990s and then throughout the ensuing browser wars. The parallels between Apple and Microsoft are clear and ominous.  Microsoft, coming late to the party, realised how the world was going to consume its media via the internet and wanted to control its access.  Apple is attempting to do something similar.

For a company that doesn't embrace social media, where Steve Jobs has no on-line presence, where the staff are also discouraged from engaging in online conversations and blogs, this is a dangerous game to play.  Apple's behaviour reminds me of closed and failed states like China, the Soviet Union and Iran attempting to do the same with their media channels. State controlled media has never succeeded, in today's world of social media it stands even less chance to succeed (think of the recent Iranian election and subsequent protests viral news coverage). 

Microsoft failed in its attempts to dominate access to the web.  Yes, at the time they damaged Netscape's share of the browser market, but Internet Explorer's gain was shortlived with more and more people now preferring other browsers.  Microsoft's behaviour was at enormous cost to the business both financially and to it's reputation, and for little end reward.  Apple deserves to fail in it's endeavours to control how we access and consume our media too.

Gorkana welcomed to Durrants and Metrica stable

by Richard Bagnall 4/8/2010 9:54:00 PM
Following on in quick succession from the purchase of Metrica by Durrants at the end of October last year, we are delighted to welcome Gorkana to the group today.  The story has been well covered in the nationaltrade and social media and has stimulated plenty of discussion.
 
We're very excited to be working with Gorkana.  When Metrica came together with Durrants in October, the plan was to build the industry's leading media intelligence organisation covering all of the key stages in the PR life cycle.  Durrants' media monitoring, Gorkana's PR planning and Metrica's PR measurement consultancy means that for the first time it is possible to work with the market leaders as part of one group.
 
In the short term it will be business as usual for all three firms.  As Durrants' Managing Director Jeremy Thompson explains over on Speed MD Wadds' blog:
 
"How soon can we get an enterprise deal for Durrants, Gorkana and Metrica products and services?
 
We’re not going to rush to integrate. The key is stability, and to build something really special for the long term. We are very happy to do enterprise deals from day one though, and have already done a number for Durrants and Metrica combined services." 
 
In the near future, we will create a fully integrated offering in response to the demands and needs of our clients.  We have already conducted significant research amongst the PR industry to help us understand the specific needs of today's PR pros.  But we're always keen to hear more so do please feel free to contact us with your views and ideas.
 
The final thoughts go again to Jeremy:
 
"This move is transformational as it completes the coming together of three market leaders, all with strong reputations for delivering exceptional services and customer support...  Durrants acquired Metrica, the award winning media evaluation specialist in October 2009. Combining Gorkana with Durrants media monitoring and Metrica analysis will give our customers unrivalled access to the ‘best of breed’ solution for every stage of the PR workflow.” 
 
Watch this space!
 
 

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