So 08 has brought us Measurement Matters, Sachsgate and a declining economy, but what’s in store for us in 09. Here are my 3 tips - feel free to disagree
1) For cost reasons there will be a dramatic increase in the number of publications moving towards online only content. December has already brought the closure of more local newspapers, with Newsquest's announcement it was cutting 11 of its titles. A recent report by Deloitte titled ‘Stop the presses: print in peril’ predicted that the newspaper and magazine industry could be “decimated” with falling advertising rates, increasing costs and a badly peforming economy.
As Howard Davies, co-author of the report, told the Financial Times “This is a downward spiral. It has already become quite difficult for print publishers, but it is going to get much worse."
The cheaper online platform offers a viable business solution. There is certainly now the potential consumers, according to Ofcom over half of UK households now have broadband and with the advent of mobile internet this will only grow. Yes, as with anything in the future when nothing is concrete, there will be much hand wringing about the uncertainty of profit and readership, but, I think, there are reasons to be hopeful.
The recent Forrester Research report noted that trust, and (in my mind, anyway) a motivating factor for continuing consumer loyalty, for print newspapers in America is considerably higher than a personal blog. Surely this trust, and previous brand recognition that established titles have, can successfully crossover on the internet. Indeed, squeeze out the personal bloggers who have stolen a march on them. It might take a brave publisher and time, but as Gary Andrews notes in his blog:
“even if it is a desperate last throw of the dice, what does a paper have to lose if it tries it? Not that I’d want to see papers disappear from their communities, but if it’s a choice between online-only news and no news at all…” I expect current market conditions might well force the publishers hand sooner than some of us think.
2) Return on Investment metrics will replace Advertising Value Equivalent as the PR industry’s go to figure- maybe wishful think, but it makes sense, doesn’t it?
It’s long been a tarnished metric talked about previously on this blog. However, if those posts didn’t convince you maybe the following will. It’s a figure that will not make your PR look good. AVE figures are going to go down. So for those of you who benchmark their campaigns success by AVE there could be some potentially tricky boardroom questions.
As the Deloitte report noted, advertising revenues may fall up to 20% and with another report in The Guardian suggesting UK internet ad spend growth will be cut by more than 50% next year. Logic would suggest the need for PR teams to pre-empt this and switch to another boardroom friendly metric like cost per thousand reached. This ROI metric presents a clear and transparent number that can and does give a figure that shows the value of PR- particularly important given this current economic climate.
3) Liverpool to win the Premiership. But maybe that’s more of a personal wish…
Happy Xmas Everyone!
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