11/5/2008 12:03:43 AM

Interesting question. We're obviously seeing a contraction in an industry that is being challenged by new technology that has created a more compelling mechanism for delivery of their product/service. But this contraction won't be different than similar movements in other media sectors (CDs, movies, etc.) or any other area that has been impacted by technological improvement.

As I write this, I'm sitting in a doctor's office with a table full of well-used magazines. There will always be a segment of the population that demands a printed version that serves a specific need. That population won't be large enough to consume all the options in the marketplace today but the doctor's office table will need a printed publication for the foreseeable future.

Still don't believe me? Well, we still ride horses 100 years after the advent of the automobile, we sheer sheep despite the invention of synthetic fibers, and we write thank you notes many years after the first e-mail was sent.

Why, the market demands it.

Rob McMurtrie

11/5/2008 6:55:57 AM

As the news first breaks that Barack Obama has won the US election, my favourite quote from the Today programme on Radio 4:

"And now over to the papers... while the online editions are updating themselves in real time, the paper versions are struggling to keep up."

That said, I totally agree with your point about magazines in doctors' surgeries and horse riding too Rob. It's likely that there will always be a need for some papers to be printed, but will it remain the primary source of information or a supplemental one?

Richard

11/5/2008 9:58:36 AM

Interesting also, was the co-existence of mainstream and consumer generated media in the election coverage.
BBC had bloggers at their New York event, tracking the buzz as the night unfolded.
It was an excellent example of an established news organisation adapting to the changing media reality.

PaulK

11/5/2008 2:08:56 PM

Rob, Piers Morgan would tell you that those in the doctor's waiting room will soon be reading from eTablets or somesuch. I'm not sure how quickly this will come about, but he has a point: costs of print and distribution are not, in most cases, justified by newspapers' increasingly supplemental nature.

I don't think the comparisons with music, movies and horseriding are valid. The value of a particular form is wholly related to the nature of the content. News content is by nature ephemeral, and the web is perfect for it.

CISION.net&c

11/7/2008 1:18:57 AM

@Cision - Clearly there is a business case for abandoning print and CSM's decision to do that demonstrates even large, well-entrenched publications are not immune from those pressures.

I'm approaching the question from the other side, however, as a consumer of news. I believe, as you do, that the web will become the dominant delivery mechanism, especially as mobile devices proliferate, but there will always be a market for print because, like horses, movies and music, it offers a different experience with different advantages. In some cases, print goes where screens can't/won't go (I mean that both literally and figuratively) whether it's a doctor's office, a bathroom stall, etc. For example, as a knowledge worker, I look at the computer screen all day. When I get home, I want a break from that experience and I opt for print, sometimes conciously but often unconciously. Part of the problem is caused by the techology itself - screens firing bright light into my eyes vs. paper softly reflecting the ambient light in the room. Likewise, movie theatres won't be replaced by Comcast OnDemand or iTunes because sometimes I don't want to be in my house and the theatre offers an escape.

Maybe some future OLED will replicate the print experience but that does seem way off.

Rob McMurtrie

11/13/2008 5:13:49 PM

i do think 'hard copy' news papers face an uncertain future. its 'yesterday's news' really. you have probably read about the issues the day they happen on the net.

i would think regional papers will be available in hard copy for the foreseeable future tho. the 'local news' is not always available as readily.

Allen Cotter