“Stocks Plunge as Fears of Recession Grow” – Los Angeles Times
“Richest Countries Are Near Simultaneous Recession” – International Herald Tribune
“Brown: Worst global slump in 30 years” – Independent
“Recession fears over oil price” – Daily Telegraph
“Global slump worsens” – Washington Post
Looks like a trawl through the business pages over the last couple of months, doesn’t it? Actually these headlines all date back to 2001 which was the last time I remember the world was convinced we were about to suffer economic armageddon.
The fall out from September 11th, the impending war with Iraq, concerns over oil prices, economic problems in Asia and an unsustainable housing boom all lead to a pessimistic outlook. However what actually happened in 2001 was less severe than many predicted.
David Henderson makes the point about the important difference between perception and reality in a recent post on the Daily Dog.
The PR industry though weathered the storm pretty well. According to data from the London Business School, between 2001 and 2004 PR actually increased its share of marketing spend while traditional forms of advertising were strongly hit.
What will happen this time around? Well, we don’t know but I would argue that the PR industry is in a strong position. Media relations remains a very cost effective way of communicating with a mass audience. Indeed Metrica’s own research has shown that it is typically ten times more cost effective than advertising and 300 times more than direct marketing. Many of course would say that the DM is more targeted and can have better response rates, but you can even chip away at this argument if PR campaigns have been intelligently planned.
Add to this the persuasive value of third party credibility that editorial brings. There are more and more media channels in print, online, digital TV and radio that need content and there is a growing body of evidence that people are being turned off advertising (or literally fast forwarding in the case of Sky+!). Take into account the opportunity that the PR industry has to take ownership of the social media explosion and the future starts to look a bit more rose tinted.
What is needed is for PRs to be able to prove the effectiveness of their efforts and to demonstrate true ROI to those that hold the purse strings.