Hanging in the balance

by Kristin Wadge 5/7/2010 10:20:00 AM
So, the big day has been and gone and here we are in limbo.  Cleggmania and Bigot-gate seemed but a distant memory as news the world over focused on Polling Day.
 
At Metrica we've been watching how the social media world has shaped itself around the Election campaigns.  We saw as CGM shadowed mainstream media events, most notably the televised debates.  On the big day itself, the UK nationals dedicated their front pages to the election, while social media buzz calmed down.  And over on Fishburn Hedges site, the automated sentiment analysis we put together gave a spookily accurate insight into the possible outcome (we really should have had the pluck to call the election!).
 
Aside from being a bit of fun, our Mood-o-Meter was born from a conversation about the need to see what effect social media has on people's thoughts, decisions and actions.  As with all PR, what really matters is not what's said but what's done.  What the eventual outcome is.  What better time to test the myriad theories than with the first UK general election since Obama's triumph set the CGM world alight.
 
The Televised debates had the biggest impact on online conversations.  The 15th April saw the Lib Dems come out from the shadows and dominate conversation -- the Clegg-effect was immediate.  Instant polling after the first debate declared Nick Clegg the winner, and social media agreed (see below).  Check out the unexpected impact of the debate as shown in the YouGov opinion polls. Now THAT's that I call an outcome.
 
Fig1: total online buzz for the three leaders over time
 
 
Both Clegg and Cameron did well in the second debate, but Nick again secured the most interest throughout the social media world.  Finally, David Cameron emerged victorious from the third debate on the 29th and the Conservatives made a 5% gain over the Labour party.  The event, however, was completely overshadowed by Brown's Bigot-gate in terms of buzz and the social media world appeared to lose interest.
 
Fig2: total online buzz for the three parties over time

The clearest conclusion to date is that social media behaviour in the run up to the election has certainly supported the model of media meshing or integrated media consumption.  What's not clear is what effect social media had on people's decision making.  Nick Clegg wooed undecided Britian in the first televised debate but interest waned over time.  And overall, despite closing the gap in buzz, the Lib dems continued to trail behind the other main parties.  A result that has been echoed in Polling stations around the country yesterday.  What we hope to unravel over coming weeks is whether undecided voters looked to social peers to guide them.  Or was it the striking headlines and front pages in the mainstream media that ultimately swayed decisions?  Before we get to work on the data, what do you guys think?  Did social media have an impact on who ended up in Number 10?
 

Clegg rocks the social media world in the first televised election debate

by Kristin Wadge 4/16/2010 6:34:00 PM
Any excuse for a party, eh?  Last night's televised election debate spawned a veritable glut of election parties around the country. I had the privilege of spending my evening in the company of the lovely folks over at MandateKrishnan Guru-Murthy (@krishgm) started the evening off with some insider insight.  He briefed us to look for signs of nervousness including Clegg's swallowing, Cameron's face-wiping and Brown's 'charming' / alarming smile. It was also clear that, with an equal amount of time being granted to Clegg, a predefined advantage would most likely play out. After letting the two leading parties squabble over a the scraps of a question, the Lib Dem leader would be able to swoop in and save the day with some cool, calm and collected comments.
 
Mandate gave us all voting remotes to give our thoughts on various topics such as whether the leaders would wear ties to reflect thier party colours. Pink? Really?Everyone loves a bit of interactivity and, of course, they were able to get some good PR from it.  Cue a hit in PR Week: "in a poll of 200 comms experts taken at an event held by Mandate in Westminster, 45 per cent of comms experts said they thought Brown had received the best media training, while 76 per cent believed Cameron made the biggest blunder." Nice.
 
So we're broadly agreed that Clegg won the war of the words during the live broadcast. But how did he do in the social media realm?  Alongside Fishburn Hedges Metrica has adapted its social media tool to create a completely automated Mood-o-Meter to track the social media buzz around the three parties in the run up to the election. 
 
We've sliced the data to look at all positive and neutral mentions of the leaders in social media content. When we first started tracking data, the three lines were as you would typically expect them to be - Labour and the Tories dancing around the top of the charts, with the Lib Dems skimming along the bottom. After the massive spike caused by the annoucnement of the election date, and in the run up to the live debate, things really started to change.
 
Fig. 1: positive and neutral mentions of party leaders in social media over time 
 
 
 
Fig. 2: share of positive and neutral mentions of party leaders in social media w/c 12th April 2010 
 
 
Fig 3: share of positive and neutral mentions of party leaders in social media w/c 14th March 2010 

 

If we compare Clegg and the Lib Dems' share of social media in the week just gone to the same week a month ago, the effect is immediately obvious. What a difference a month makes. But, how much of this is attributable to him, and how much to his mentor, Vince Cable and hisown social media bandwagon going on at "In Vince Cable we Trust"?

It's a newspaper, Jim, but not as we know it

by Kristin Wadge 2/2/2010 5:40:00 PM
The iPad - newspaper saviour?  Kindle killer?  A device too far? It's wait and see time.
 
Before the launch, there was a huge focus on what the iPad could do for the beleaguered newspaper industry.  The Telegraph—using the widely assumed iTablet moniker—carried a piece about five ways the new device could change our lives.  Like may others, it carried a glorious message of hope: "The day's papers could be wirelessly delivered to the iTablet, complete with live discussion forums or social network integration to debate the key topics of the days, while embedded video and audio would bring stories to life."  Nice.  US title Sports Illustrated, erm, illustrates this excellently:
 

 
The San Francisco launch, however, was telling.  Mediaweek talks about how the spotlight skipped newspapers and shone brightly on e-Books.  Jobs took a clear swipe at the Kindle.  Perhaps that's because the publishers need to help themselves before the iPad in shining armour comes to the rescue.  Google's chief economist sums this up nicely in Advertising Age: "Devices like Apple's iPad may help newspapers and traditional publishers, but only significant evolution will save them."
 
Too true.  As consumers both sides of the pond continue to desert 'dead wood' newspapers, something needs to change.  News International's widely discussed fondness of paywalls is one direction.  Socially orientated, interactive, engaging, mobile delivery is another.  I know which one I would rather see happen.  Plus truly engaged readers surely = an advertisers dream.
 
It seems to me that, pending consumer take up, the iPad has set the scene for a media revolution.  Question is, are we ready?  And, more to the point, are the publishers?

Digital skills lacking in PR industry?

by Kristin Wadge 1/14/2010 1:52:00 PM

A recent PR Week piece entitled, "Recruitment consultants find digital skills in short supply within PR industry," has highlighted again the percieved disconnect between traditional PR and the digital skills needed to operate in the 'new' social world. 

The clients we work with in social media absolutely buck this supposed trend so it seems that it is just taking a while to filter through the whole industry.  The piece is good feedback, however, on the areas that are lacking. 

Metrica will be at the Social Media World Forum talking about these very things.  Be great to see some of you there. 

Metrica Insights: Money, money, money

by Kristin Wadge 12/17/2009 12:28:00 PM

It’s that time of the year that we all look forward to.  Snow is falling and festivities flowing as we prepare to say goodbye to 2009.  It’s been quite a year.  Not least remembered for a heavy downward pressure on budgets; in turn fanning the flames of the eternal debate about how much should be spent on PR measurement.

Back in 1998, the CIPR, PRCA, Public Relations Standards Forum (PRSF) and AMEC put their heads together and produced best practice guidelines on the use of planning, research and evaluation within the industry.  The aim of the campaign, known as PR Week’s Proof campaign, was to encourage companies to allocate 10% of PR budget to measurement.  Over ten years on and, although the 10% figure is often cited, the reality is rather different.  Metrica Insights found that over half (52%) of respondents spend between 1-5% on measurement.  The respondents do, however, believe they should be spending more on evaluation: almost half the participants currently spending between 1-5% recognise that they should be spending between 6-10%.

 

So, herein lies the conundrum. When budgets are being squished and results are under close scrutiny does it pay to hold fast and continue dedicating 10% to measurement?  Here at Metrica (heavily vested interest aside!) we would argue that the answer is yes.  As long as it’s done properly.  There’s little point spending swathes of money on measurement if it doesn’t demonstrate PR’s contribution to the success of the business.  Counting clips and presenting AVEs won’t make the money spent worthwhile; generating ROI metrics that help prove and improve the effectiveness of PR will.  If you can use your measurement for well-informed planning, tweaking and improving then the budget really starts to sing hard for its supper. 

Interestingly, while more respondents’ 2009 PR budgets decreased (30%) than increased (20%), the majority (46%) stayed the same.  This was a very encouraging result during a global recession.  The widening remit of PR in the social media realm may well have had something to do with this.  Even more reassurance came as 28% of respondents were confident of an increase in overall PR budgets coming into 2010.  Is this result a reality?  Have your budgets been decided yet? And, most importantly, have you put aside a set amount for measurement? 

Next time we’re looking at opinions around ROI – the catch of the day, the phrase du jour, the Holy Grail. At long last there’s been increased demand for PR ROI.  How are our respondents satisfying this demand?  We’ll be back in the New Year to find out. Happy Christmas everyone!

Metrica Insights (insight 1, part 2): The beginning... a very good place to start

by Kristin Wadge 11/4/2009 1:26:00 PM

After Metrica's exciting news last week regarding our acquisition by Durrants, it’s back to business as usual on the blog.  So, on with our introductory post from Metrica Insights...  

With solid PR objectives sorted, the next thing to think about is how they will be measured.  Do you need to do pre and post research?  Do you need to feed into a marketing mix model that the advertisers are running?  Do you need to measure your media output? A wise man once said, “not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts.”  One of the biggest barriers to doing the right measurement is often cited as money.  Gravitating towards the quick ROI win helps.  Piggy back on the advertising department’s econometric model.  Add an evaluation question to your newshook research.

A worrying 12% of respondents don’t measure the results of PR.  It brings to mind a couple of business maxims that still ring true: what gets measured is what gets done; you can’t manage what you don’t measure.  Clichéd, yes, but oh so true.

 

So how are people using measurement? Overall, the trend shows the growing importance of media evaluation.  Which is great.   

What looks worrying however is the decreased use of PR measurement for planning since we last asked in 2006.  Only when measurement is used for tactical readjustments as well as strategic planning and refinement does it truly show its value.

 

For the first time we also asked if measurement is used to track and respond to social media.  68% said yes.  Now, I don’t know about you but I can only imagine this increasing overtime.  Tracking effectively is the first step.  Chris Brogan, an internet sensation known for his sagely advice says, “grow bigger ears”.  Listen first and listen hard (or get your media measurement agency to do it for you).  Then you can decide what action to take.

 


PR measurement can wear many hats.  It can be a benchmarking or campaign measurement tool, it can be used for audience targeting and media planning, it can justify additional PR budget and resources and it can be used for agency or staff performance.  Ideally measurement should serve all these purposes, and more; the list’s by no means exhaustive.  By increasing the uses you put your measurement to, you increase the value you get from it.


Before we say goodbye, here are some practical tips to take away right this minute:

  • Check your objectives match those of the organisation, are measurable and have timeframes
  • Ask around your organisation about existing marketing mix modelling / econometrics and market research.  If it's happening, get involved.
  • Have a good think about how measurement is currently being used.  Have you got an actionable tool that helps you tweak tactics, set strategies and communicate your success to the business?  Or do you just flick through your lengthy report and contemplate its usefulness as a doorstop? Make your measurement work hard for its money.

Speaking of money, our next instalment is all about money.  Everybody loves a £ / $ / sign.  We’ll be looking at how much people spend on measurement.  Is there a right amount?  How have other PRO’s budgets been affected this year?  What’s the outlook for 2010?  Until then…

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A blog about media analysis & evaluation, PR planning, PR measurement and marketing measurement in general.

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